Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.

Global phylogeography and evolution of chelonid fibropapilloma-associated herpesvirus.

A global phylogeny for chelonid fibropapilloma-associated herpesvirus (CFPHV), the most likely aetiological agent of fibropapillomatosis (FP) in sea turtles, was inferred, using dated sequences, through Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis and used to estimate the virus evolutionary rate independent of the evolution of the host, and to resolve the phylogenetic positions of new haplotypes from Puerto Rico and the Gulf of Guinea. Four phylogeographical groups were identified: eastern Pacific, western Atlantic/eastern Caribbean, mid-west Pacific and Atlantic. The latter comprises the Gulf of Guinea and Puerto Rico, suggesting recent virus gene flow between these two regions. One virus haplotype from Florida remained elusive, representing either an independent lineage sharing a common ancestor with all other identified virus variants or an Atlantic representative of the lineage giving rise to the eastern Pacific group. The virus evolutionary rate ranged from 1.62×10(-4) to 2.22×10(-4) substitutions per site per year, which is much faster than what is expected for a herpesvirus. The mean time for the most recent common ancestor of the modern virus variants was estimated at 192.90-429.71 years ago, which, although more recent than previous estimates, still supports an interpretation that the global FP pandemic is not the result of a recent acquisition of a virulence mutation(s). The phylogeographical pattern obtained seems partially to reflect sea turtle movements, whereas altered environments appear to be implicated in current FP outbreaks and in the modern evolutionary history of CFPHV.